Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
